Gold price surges on Wednesday, up by over 0.60%, folllowing US inflation data, which increased speculation that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will resume its easing cycle at the upcoming September meeting. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades at $3,646, shy of the record high of $3,674.

Bullion up 0.60% fueled by Fed cut bets, Middle East tensions and Russian drone incursion into Poland's airspace

The Producer Price Index (PPI) in August revealed that the disinflation process resumed in August, as businesses seem to absorb some of the US President Donald Trump's tariffs, in exchange for maintaining consumer prices steady. Alongside this, Tuesday's payrolls revision had increased the chances that the Fed will cut rates next week.

Traders seem to have made profits as the data supported further upside. Also, news of Russian drones violating Polish airspace could escalate the conflict linked to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, a tailwind for Bullion prices.

In the meantime, Israel's airstrike on Hamas leaders in Qatar hurts US peace efforts in the Middle East.

XAU/USD traders' eyes are on the release of the latest inflation figures on the consumer side in the United States. This and Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending September 6, could be the last nail in the coffin to an utmost certain interest rate cut by the Fed.

Gold edges up as US inflation ticks lower
The US PPI in August witnessed a dip from 3.1% to 2.6% YoY. Core PPI came at 2.8% YoY, down from 3.4% downward revised in July. Pricing of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, tilted 1 basis points dovishly.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the buck's performance against a basket of six currencies, is flat at around 97.75.
US Treasury yields are falling, with the 10-year Treasury note down four basis points (bps) to 4.045%. US real yields calculated by subtracting inflation expectations from the nominal yield have decreased nearly four basis points to 1.685% at the time of writing.

US inflation data will be announced this week. On Thursday, traders await the US CPI, which is expected to increase from 2.7% to 2.9% YoY on Thursday. Core CPI, excluding volatile items, is expected to hold steady at 3.1% YoY.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) revised down its annual benchmark payrolls to -911K for March 2025, exceeding economists' estimates of -682K, according to Bloomberg.

Regarding geopolitics Poland shot down Russian drones that crossed into its territory during Russia's latest massive air strike on Ukraine. Poland called it an "act of aggression," and the Polish Prime Minister said the violation is an intentional provocation from Moscow.
Chinese official data revealed that the People's Bank of China (PBoC) extended its buying streak to a 10 straight month in August.

Expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut rates next week 25 bps are at 90%. The chances for a 50 bps are slim at 10%, revealed Prime Market Terminal interest rate probabilities tool

Source: Fxstreet